Interesting read.The gist of this piece seems to be that ultimately, the points earned will "catch up" with the GD and xG ie. that the current league position is false. However, each goal scored does not have the same value because( in most cases) the third and fourth goals scored in a match do not alter the result. This season our league wins have been 4-0,4-1,4-1,4-0,3-0,3-1 and 5-0 and I suspect many of these goals have been scored on transitions with the opposition chasing the game.It is true that most defeats have been narrow but points have also been lost in the three draws against mid/lower table teams.
Also, league form has been mediocre since half-way through last season (including several heavy defeats where we had minimal injuries) so the sample size is becoming pretty big to argue bad luck is a major factor.
My personal opinion is that the first ten games of last season were the outlier and that Ange's system gives up too many big chances for it to be sustainably successful unless we have a prodigiously efficient attack.To be fair he has always (effectively) said this.
Phase 1: Math doesn't apply to the beautiful game
Phase 2: A few numbers are fine as long as they reinforce my bias
Phase 3: Math can explain everything, and luck is a mirage (also, it still better reinforce my bias)
Phase 4: Luck is short-term, mathematical abnormalities that can, in fact, be modeled... And it better reinforce my bias.
Interesting read.The gist of this piece seems to be that ultimately, the points earned will "catch up" with the GD and xG ie. that the current league position is false. However, each goal scored does not have the same value because( in most cases) the third and fourth goals scored in a match do not alter the result. This season our league wins have been 4-0,4-1,4-1,4-0,3-0,3-1 and 5-0 and I suspect many of these goals have been scored on transitions with the opposition chasing the game.It is true that most defeats have been narrow but points have also been lost in the three draws against mid/lower table teams.
Also, league form has been mediocre since half-way through last season (including several heavy defeats where we had minimal injuries) so the sample size is becoming pretty big to argue bad luck is a major factor.
My personal opinion is that the first ten games of last season were the outlier and that Ange's system gives up too many big chances for it to be sustainably successful unless we have a prodigiously efficient attack.To be fair he has always (effectively) said this.